Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai has positioned quantum computing as the next major technological breakthrough, telling BBC Newsnight that the field now stands where artificial intelligence was five years ago—just before its explosive growth into mainstream adoption.
“I would say quantum is there where maybe AI was 5 years ago. So I think in five years from now we’ll be going through a very exciting phase in quantum,” Pichai said in the interview, which aired on November 18. He emphasized that Google maintains “the state-of-the-art quantum computing efforts in the world” and predicted an impending “aha moment” when quantum machines demonstrably outperform classical computers on real-world problems.
Willow Chip Breakthrough Fuels Optimism#
Pichai’s confidence stems partly from recent advances in Google’s quantum program. In October, the company’s Willow quantum chip achieved what researchers call “verifiable quantum advantage,” running the Quantum Echoes algorithm 13,000 times faster than the world’s fastest supercomputers on specific physics simulations. The breakthrough, published in Nature, demonstrated potential applications in molecular chemistry and drug discovery.
However, Pichai tempered expectations by noting that fully useful, error-corrected quantum computers remain “a decade or more away.” The technology still faces persistent challenges including qubit stability, high error rates, and the need for extreme cooling.
Market Reaction and Stock Volatility#
Pichai’s remarks have energized investor sentiment in quantum computing stocks, though the sector remains highly volatile. Pure-play quantum companies IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, and Rigetti Computing have delivered extraordinary returns over the past year—up 97%, 1,420%, and 1,590%, respectively, as of mid-November.
Yet all three stocks have declined sharply from recent peaks, falling at least 35% from their all-time highs reached in recent weeks. IonQ closed at $46.90 on November 26, while D-Wave traded at $22.53 and Rigetti at $25.57.
The quantum computing market is projected to grow from $3.52 billion in 2025 to $20.20 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 41.8%. Major technology firms including IBM, Microsoft, and Nvidia have also expanded their quantum programs, intensifying competition.
Analysts maintain optimistic price targets despite recent volatility, with consensus projections suggesting potential upside of 72% for IonQ, 74% for Rigetti, and 85% for D-Wave.